Midwest refineries boost capacity for heavy crude oil (3/27/2013)

Released:  March 27, 2013
Next Release:  April 3, 2013

Despite recent national attention on rising domestic production of light sweet crude oil, especially from tight oil formations in North Dakota, some Midwest refiners are reconfiguring their facilities to process more heavy crude oil, which will likely come from Canada.

The refinery coking capacity in PAD District 2 (the Midwest) is set to increase significantly this year as refiners in the region focus on heavy crude oil. As this additional coking capacity comes online, Midwest refiners will be able to significantly increase runs of heavy crude, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS).

WCS currently sells at a steep discount to other crude oil benchmarks used in the United States, including West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet, and West Texas Sour, and processing WCS reduces refiner crude oil costs. When the additional coking capacity comes online, the average API gravity of crude runs in the region is likely to decrease and the product yield patterns are likely to change.

Coking is a thermal cracking process that converts heavy hydrocarbons such as atmospheric residuum, vacuum gasoil and residuals, and bitumen into lighter hydrocarbons such as unfinished gasoline and gasoils as well as petroleum coke and light gases. Coking allows refiners to increase gasoline and distillate yields from heavy crude oils (details).

Between 2002 and 2012, Midwest coking capacity increased from 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to more than 480,000 bbl/d, an increase of about 20 percent (see chart). Three major coking unit construction projects have recently been completed or are in process in PADD 2. In November 2011, Phillips 66's Wood River, Illinois, refinery (which is jointly owned by Phillips 66 and Cenovus and operated by Phillips 66) completed the addition of a 65,000-bbl/d coker. A year later, Marathon Petroleum completed a 28,000-bbl/d coker at its refinery in Detroit, Michigan. Currently, a 102,000-bbl/d coker is under construction at BP's Whiting, Indiana, refinery and is scheduled for completion later this year.

These three cokers and related refinery projects will enable processing of 509,000 bbl/d of additional heavy crude, which likely will come from Canada. The increase in heavy crude processing is based on increasing overall refinery crude processing capacity and replacing existing runs of light crude with heavier crude.

The displaced light sweet crude, like other crude in the midcontinent, will find its way east, west, and south, moving by rail and pipeline to refineries in those regions and displacing imports of waterborne crude.

The additional heavy crude is expected to lead to decreases in average API gravity in the region. From 2010 to 2012, the average API gravity of crude runs in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio fell by 2 percent, going from 33.64 to 32.98 degrees.

Trade press reports indicate that additional Midwest refiners may undertake coker installation projects in the coming years. Husky's refinery in Lima, Ohio, and NCRA's McPherson, Kansas, facility are said to be considering upgrades that would expand coking capacity, which could lead to further changes in average API gravity and refinery yields in the region.

Three New Midwest Coking Projects FacilityPre-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityPost-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityHeavy Crude Processing IncreaseStart-upPhillips 66/Cenovus, Wood River, IllinoisMarathon Petroleum, Detroit, Michigan

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both down for the 4th consecutive week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased two cents to $3.68 per gallon, down 24 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 10 cents over the last four weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.66 per gallon, up a penny from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast price is down 5 cents, and now below the $4-per-gallon mark at $3.96 per gallon. The East Coast price is $3.66 per gallon, down three cents from last week, and the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.51 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the third consecutive week, to $4.01 per gallon, 14 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has fallen 15 cents over the last four weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest drop on the West Coast, where the price fell six cents to $4.10 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is a nickel lower at $3.94 per gallon. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are $3.98 per gallon and $3.94 per gallon, respectively, both down four cents from last week. Rounding out the regions, the East Coast price dropped three cents to $4.05 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 0.9 million barrels to end at 40.8 million barrels last week, and are 2.9 million barrels (6.5 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 0.5 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 0.3 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.2 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.2 percent of total propane inventories.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

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Mid-Continent Crude Oil Markets Continue to Adjust to Rapid Rise in Bakken Production (4/3/2013)

Released:  April 3, 2013
Next Release:  April 10, 2013

The differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Dakota's Bakken crudes continues to fluctuate, reflecting both production growth and changes in oil transportation capacity. Bakken crude sold at a $25-per-barrel discount to WTI in early 2012 and rose to a $5-per-barrel premium last September, before again being discounted below WTI this winter. So far this year, the gap between Bakken and WTI prices has narrowed, and once again, the Bakken price has risen above the WTI price, albeit modestly (Figure 1).

West Texas Intermediate prices are determined at Cushing, Oklahoma; Bakken prices are those at Clearbrook, Minnesota, where the North Dakota pipeline network joins Enbridge's pipeline running southeast from western Canada. Because of the costs of transporting Bakken crude to Clearbrook, including the pipeline tariff, the price for Bakken at the wellhead will be less than the delivered price at Clearbrook.

The strong growth in Bakken production has frequently outpaced expansion of the local transportation infrastructure, leading to discounts for Bakken crude compared to benchmark WTI. Production in North Dakota, the primary source of Bakken crude, rose 243,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), or 58 percent, in 2012 to 663,000 bbl/d, placing North Dakota second only to Texas in oil production among all states. Meanwhile, pipeline capacity out of the region, which is also used to accommodate increased production of Canadian crude flowing through the region, was estimated at only 395,000 bbl/d in 2012.

Limited pipeline capacity has forced shippers of Bakken crude to use alternative transportation, such as railroads. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, loading capacity at North Dakota rail terminals increased by 660,000 bbl/d between 2007 and the end of 2012, with an additional 355,000 bbl/d of capacity expected to come on line by the end of 2014.

Although transportation of crude oil by rail is generally more expensive than shipping by pipeline, rail-loading capacity has proven cheaper and quicker to build. In addition, the logistical flexibility of rail has enabled Bakken crude to reach refining areas not typically served by pipeline from the Bakken. Historically, crude oil production from the Northern Plains has been discounted against midcontinent crudes to account for the added costs of moving these crudes by pipeline to areas such as Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast (PAD District 3).

Investment in rail offloading capacity at East Coast refineries, such as Philadelphia Energy Solutions's Philadelphia complex, suggests that Bakken offers a cost-competitive alternative to Brent-linked crude imports despite the cost of transporting Bakken by rail from the Midwest. The landed cost of Nigerian crude, the leading source of East Coast imports for most of the past two decades, averaged about $117/bbl in 2012, making Bakken and other domestic crudes economical alternatives. Because of the closure of several East Coast refineries and the availability of cheaper domestic light crude, East Coast imports of Nigerian crude fell from 471,000 bbl/d in 2005 to 166,000 bbl/d in 2012.

For West Coast refineries, cost-competitive access to Bakken crude would allow the Bakken oil to displace more-expensive imports there, as well. West Coast imports, which come primarily from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Iraq, have remained flat since 2006; however, Anacortes, Washington, began receiving unit-train shipments of Bakken in late 2012, potentially signaling new competition for West Coast oil imports.

As Bakken rail shipments reach the East and West coasts, pricing for Bakken crude oil is evolving. The ability to economically reach refineries on the East and West coasts expands the market for Bakken beyond the traditional Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, which have experienced a glut of midcontinent crudes in recent years. By moving east and west, Bakken escapes the infrastructure constraints that have significantly affected the price of WTI. The Gulf Coast, where Brent-linked imports have already declined significantly, offers less opportunity for Bakken. As light-sweet imports continue to be displaced along the Gulf Coast, Bakken will increasingly compete with other domestic crudes, many of which have lower pipeline transportation costs to the Gulf Coast. As long as Bakken production and transportation capacity scramble to seek equilibrium, continued variation in the differential between Bakken and WTI prices is likely.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices continue to decrease
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased four cents from the previous week to $3.65 per gallon as of April 1, 2013, down 30 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 14 cents over the last five weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Rocky Mountains, where the price is $3.50 per gallon, up three cents from last week. The largest decrease came in the Midwest, where the price dropped six cents to $3.60 per gallon. The East and Gulf Coast prices are both lower by three cents, to $3.63 per gallon and $3.48 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the West Coast price is $3.95 per gallon, a decline of two cents.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased one cent to $3.99 per gallon, 15 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has decreased 17 cents over the last five weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation except the West Coast, where the price increased two cents to $4.12 per gallon. The largest decrease came on the East Coast, where the price declined three cents to $4.03 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is $3.92 per gallon, a drop of two cents. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are both lower by a penny, to $3.97 per gallon and $3.92 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.1 million barrels to end at 39.7 million barrels last week, and are 5.0 million barrels (11.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.6 million barrels, and Midwest regional inventories declined by 0.4 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 9.1 percent of total propane inventories.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Total U.S. crude oil imports continue to decline in 2012 but regional differences persist (3/20/2013)

Released:  March 20, 2013
Next Release:  March 27, 2013

At 8.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997, as growing domestic crude oil production drove a 444,000 bbl/d (5.0 percent) decline from the 2011 import level. With refinery runs remaining relatively high, U.S. refiners are running an increasing amount of domestically produced crude oil. However, the crude oil import reduction trend is not geographically uniform. Most of the decline in imported crude oil occurred in the Gulf Coast and East Coast regions, while Midwest imports rose (Figure 1).

Since peaking in 2005 at 10.1 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil imports fell in six of the subsequent seven years, amounting to a total decline of more than 1.6 million bbl/d (16.1 percent). Over the same period, net crude runs at U.S. refineries fell only 200,000 bbl/d (1.4 percent). As a result, imports represented 57 percent of crude oil run in U.S. refineries in 2012, down from 67 percent in 2005.

Reductions in the use of imported crude oil were most apparent along the Gulf Coast, home to about half of the nation's refining capacity. Imported crude runs in this region were 4.5 million bbl/d in 2012, representing 58 percent of total crude runs, down from 80 percent in 2005. EIA's weekly data indicate that that trend is continuing and accelerating in 2013. Average Gulf Coast crude oil imports for the four weeks ending March 1 dropped below 3.4 million bbl/d, the lowest four-week average since 1992.

From 2005 to 2012, East Coast refinery runs of imported crude decreased 735,000 bbl/d (46 percent). That decrease was almost matched by a 685,000 bbl/d decrease in overall East Coast crude runs. Recently, the large price differentials between landlocked crudes with growing production, such as Bakken, and global seaborne crudes that are linked to the price of Brent have encouraged refiners to bring more domestically produced crude into the region via rail. In 2012, 92 percent of crude oil run in East Coast refineries was imported, down from 99 percent in 2005.

Opposite this trend, the Midwest has been importing significantly more crude oil since 2005. In 2012, runs of imported crude oil reached 1.7 million bbl/d, an increase of 205,000 bbl/d (14 percent). In 2005, almost 34 percent of imported crude oil run in the Midwest was shipped to the Midwest via another region, most commonly by pipeline from the Gulf Coast; however, by 2012, nearly all imported crude processed in the Midwest was imported directly from Canada. While total U.S. crude imports have been decreasing, imports from Canada have gone up 775,000 bbl/d since 2005. The United States imported 2.4 million bbl/d of Canadian crude oil in 2012, or about 28 percent of total U.S. crude imports.

In addition to crude from Canada, crude imports from Colombia, Kuwait, and Brazil also increased; however, imports from other major suppliers declined since 2005 (Figure 2). U.S. imports from Nigeria have fallen 671,000 bbl/d (62 percent) since reaching almost 1.1 million bbl/d in 2005. This decline in imports of Nigerian crude has been split fairly evenly between the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Much of the growth in domestic production has been light low-sulfur crude oil, a suitable and more economic substitute for the Brent-price-linked Nigerian grades, which have lost competitiveness in U.S. import markets. The United States has also reduced imports of heavy high-sulfur crude from Mexico and Venezuela and light low-sulfur crude from Angola and the United Kingdom.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both decrease for a 3rd week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased one cent to $3.70 per gallon, down 17 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.65 per gallon, up three cents from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast and East Coast prices both dropped four cents, to $4.01 per gallon and $3.69 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.52 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the second consecutive week, to $4.05 per gallon, 10 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease on the West Coast, where the price decreased seven cents to $4.16 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices are now both under the $4 per gallon mark, falling five and four cents from last week, respectively, to $3.99 per gallon and $3.97 per gallon. The East Coast price declined four cents to $4.08 per gallon, and the Midwest price is $4.02 per gallon, dropping three cents from last week.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.2 million barrels to end at 41.8 million barrels last week, and are 1.0 million barrels (2.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels, while East Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories changed only slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.0 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil and propane prices decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 18, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by 3 cents to $4.01 per gallon, 10 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased by 4 cents to almost $3.10 per gallon, 29 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price decreased by nearly a penny, to $2.48 per gallon, almost 39 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices increased by nearly 4 cents to $1.01 per gallon for the week ending March 18, 2013, 23 cents per gallon lower than the March 19, 2012 price.

This is the last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season. Data collection will resume on October 7, 2013 for publication on Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Total U.S. crude oil imports continue to decline in 2012 but regional differences persist (3/20/2013)

Released:  March 20, 2013
Next Release:  March 27, 2013

At 8.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997, as growing domestic crude oil production drove a 444,000 bbl/d (5.0 percent) decline from the 2011 import level. With refinery runs remaining relatively high, U.S. refiners are running an increasing amount of domestically produced crude oil. However, the crude oil import reduction trend is not geographically uniform. Most of the decline in imported crude oil occurred in the Gulf Coast and East Coast regions, while Midwest imports rose (Figure 1).

Since peaking in 2005 at 10.1 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil imports fell in six of the subsequent seven years, amounting to a total decline of more than 1.6 million bbl/d (16.1 percent). Over the same period, net crude runs at U.S. refineries fell only 200,000 bbl/d (1.4 percent). As a result, imports represented 57 percent of crude oil run in U.S. refineries in 2012, down from 67 percent in 2005.

Reductions in the use of imported crude oil were most apparent along the Gulf Coast, home to about half of the nation's refining capacity. Imported crude runs in this region were 4.5 million bbl/d in 2012, representing 58 percent of total crude runs, down from 80 percent in 2005. EIA's weekly data indicate that that trend is continuing and accelerating in 2013. Average Gulf Coast crude oil imports for the four weeks ending March 1 dropped below 3.4 million bbl/d, the lowest four-week average since 1992.

From 2005 to 2012, East Coast refinery runs of imported crude decreased 735,000 bbl/d (46 percent). That decrease was almost matched by a 685,000 bbl/d decrease in overall East Coast crude runs. Recently, the large price differentials between landlocked crudes with growing production, such as Bakken, and global seaborne crudes that are linked to the price of Brent have encouraged refiners to bring more domestically produced crude into the region via rail. In 2012, 92 percent of crude oil run in East Coast refineries was imported, down from 99 percent in 2005.

Opposite this trend, the Midwest has been importing significantly more crude oil since 2005. In 2012, runs of imported crude oil reached 1.7 million bbl/d, an increase of 205,000 bbl/d (14 percent). In 2005, almost 34 percent of imported crude oil run in the Midwest was shipped to the Midwest via another region, most commonly by pipeline from the Gulf Coast; however, by 2012, nearly all imported crude processed in the Midwest was imported directly from Canada. While total U.S. crude imports have been decreasing, imports from Canada have gone up 775,000 bbl/d since 2005. The United States imported 2.4 million bbl/d of Canadian crude oil in 2012, or about 28 percent of total U.S. crude imports.

In addition to crude from Canada, crude imports from Colombia, Kuwait, and Brazil also increased; however, imports from other major suppliers declined since 2005 (Figure 2). U.S. imports from Nigeria have fallen 671,000 bbl/d (62 percent) since reaching almost 1.1 million bbl/d in 2005. This decline in imports of Nigerian crude has been split fairly evenly between the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Much of the growth in domestic production has been light low-sulfur crude oil, a suitable and more economic substitute for the Brent-price-linked Nigerian grades, which have lost competitiveness in U.S. import markets. The United States has also reduced imports of heavy high-sulfur crude from Mexico and Venezuela and light low-sulfur crude from Angola and the United Kingdom.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both decrease for a 3rd week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased one cent to $3.70 per gallon, down 17 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.65 per gallon, up three cents from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast and East Coast prices both dropped four cents, to $4.01 per gallon and $3.69 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.52 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the second consecutive week, to $4.05 per gallon, 10 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease on the West Coast, where the price decreased seven cents to $4.16 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices are now both under the $4 per gallon mark, falling five and four cents from last week, respectively, to $3.99 per gallon and $3.97 per gallon. The East Coast price declined four cents to $4.08 per gallon, and the Midwest price is $4.02 per gallon, dropping three cents from last week.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.2 million barrels to end at 41.8 million barrels last week, and are 1.0 million barrels (2.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels, while East Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories changed only slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.0 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil and propane prices decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 18, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by 3 cents to $4.01 per gallon, 10 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased by 4 cents to almost $3.10 per gallon, 29 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price decreased by nearly a penny, to $2.48 per gallon, almost 39 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices increased by nearly 4 cents to $1.01 per gallon for the week ending March 18, 2013, 23 cents per gallon lower than the March 19, 2012 price.

This is the last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season. Data collection will resume on October 7, 2013 for publication on Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Total U.S. crude oil imports continue to decline in 2012 but regional differences persist (3/20/2013)

Released:  March 20, 2013
Next Release:  March 27, 2013

At 8.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997, as growing domestic crude oil production drove a 444,000 bbl/d (5.0 percent) decline from the 2011 import level. With refinery runs remaining relatively high, U.S. refiners are running an increasing amount of domestically produced crude oil. However, the crude oil import reduction trend is not geographically uniform. Most of the decline in imported crude oil occurred in the Gulf Coast and East Coast regions, while Midwest imports rose (Figure 1).

Since peaking in 2005 at 10.1 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil imports fell in six of the subsequent seven years, amounting to a total decline of more than 1.6 million bbl/d (16.1 percent). Over the same period, net crude runs at U.S. refineries fell only 200,000 bbl/d (1.4 percent). As a result, imports represented 57 percent of crude oil run in U.S. refineries in 2012, down from 67 percent in 2005.

Reductions in the use of imported crude oil were most apparent along the Gulf Coast, home to about half of the nation's refining capacity. Imported crude runs in this region were 4.5 million bbl/d in 2012, representing 58 percent of total crude runs, down from 80 percent in 2005. EIA's weekly data indicate that that trend is continuing and accelerating in 2013. Average Gulf Coast crude oil imports for the four weeks ending March 1 dropped below 3.4 million bbl/d, the lowest four-week average since 1992.

From 2005 to 2012, East Coast refinery runs of imported crude decreased 735,000 bbl/d (46 percent). That decrease was almost matched by a 685,000 bbl/d decrease in overall East Coast crude runs. Recently, the large price differentials between landlocked crudes with growing production, such as Bakken, and global seaborne crudes that are linked to the price of Brent have encouraged refiners to bring more domestically produced crude into the region via rail. In 2012, 92 percent of crude oil run in East Coast refineries was imported, down from 99 percent in 2005.

Opposite this trend, the Midwest has been importing significantly more crude oil since 2005. In 2012, runs of imported crude oil reached 1.7 million bbl/d, an increase of 205,000 bbl/d (14 percent). In 2005, almost 34 percent of imported crude oil run in the Midwest was shipped to the Midwest via another region, most commonly by pipeline from the Gulf Coast; however, by 2012, nearly all imported crude processed in the Midwest was imported directly from Canada. While total U.S. crude imports have been decreasing, imports from Canada have gone up 775,000 bbl/d since 2005. The United States imported 2.4 million bbl/d of Canadian crude oil in 2012, or about 28 percent of total U.S. crude imports.

In addition to crude from Canada, crude imports from Colombia, Kuwait, and Brazil also increased; however, imports from other major suppliers declined since 2005 (Figure 2). U.S. imports from Nigeria have fallen 671,000 bbl/d (62 percent) since reaching almost 1.1 million bbl/d in 2005. This decline in imports of Nigerian crude has been split fairly evenly between the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Much of the growth in domestic production has been light low-sulfur crude oil, a suitable and more economic substitute for the Brent-price-linked Nigerian grades, which have lost competitiveness in U.S. import markets. The United States has also reduced imports of heavy high-sulfur crude from Mexico and Venezuela and light low-sulfur crude from Angola and the United Kingdom.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both decrease for a 3rd week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased one cent to $3.70 per gallon, down 17 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.65 per gallon, up three cents from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast and East Coast prices both dropped four cents, to $4.01 per gallon and $3.69 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.52 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the second consecutive week, to $4.05 per gallon, 10 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease on the West Coast, where the price decreased seven cents to $4.16 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices are now both under the $4 per gallon mark, falling five and four cents from last week, respectively, to $3.99 per gallon and $3.97 per gallon. The East Coast price declined four cents to $4.08 per gallon, and the Midwest price is $4.02 per gallon, dropping three cents from last week.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.2 million barrels to end at 41.8 million barrels last week, and are 1.0 million barrels (2.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels, while East Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories changed only slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.0 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil and propane prices decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 18, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by 3 cents to $4.01 per gallon, 10 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased by 4 cents to almost $3.10 per gallon, 29 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price decreased by nearly a penny, to $2.48 per gallon, almost 39 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices increased by nearly 4 cents to $1.01 per gallon for the week ending March 18, 2013, 23 cents per gallon lower than the March 19, 2012 price.

This is the last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season. Data collection will resume on October 7, 2013 for publication on Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Mid-Continent Crude Oil Markets Continue to Adjust to Rapid Rise in Bakken Production (4/3/2013)

Released:  April 3, 2013
Next Release:  April 10, 2013

The differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Dakota's Bakken crudes continues to fluctuate, reflecting both production growth and changes in oil transportation capacity. Bakken crude sold at a $25-per-barrel discount to WTI in early 2012 and rose to a $5-per-barrel premium last September, before again being discounted below WTI this winter. So far this year, the gap between Bakken and WTI prices has narrowed, and once again, the Bakken price has risen above the WTI price, albeit modestly (Figure 1).

West Texas Intermediate prices are determined at Cushing, Oklahoma; Bakken prices are those at Clearbrook, Minnesota, where the North Dakota pipeline network joins Enbridge's pipeline running southeast from western Canada. Because of the costs of transporting Bakken crude to Clearbrook, including the pipeline tariff, the price for Bakken at the wellhead will be less than the delivered price at Clearbrook.

The strong growth in Bakken production has frequently outpaced expansion of the local transportation infrastructure, leading to discounts for Bakken crude compared to benchmark WTI. Production in North Dakota, the primary source of Bakken crude, rose 243,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), or 58 percent, in 2012 to 663,000 bbl/d, placing North Dakota second only to Texas in oil production among all states. Meanwhile, pipeline capacity out of the region, which is also used to accommodate increased production of Canadian crude flowing through the region, was estimated at only 395,000 bbl/d in 2012.

Limited pipeline capacity has forced shippers of Bakken crude to use alternative transportation, such as railroads. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, loading capacity at North Dakota rail terminals increased by 660,000 bbl/d between 2007 and the end of 2012, with an additional 355,000 bbl/d of capacity expected to come on line by the end of 2014.

Although transportation of crude oil by rail is generally more expensive than shipping by pipeline, rail-loading capacity has proven cheaper and quicker to build. In addition, the logistical flexibility of rail has enabled Bakken crude to reach refining areas not typically served by pipeline from the Bakken. Historically, crude oil production from the Northern Plains has been discounted against midcontinent crudes to account for the added costs of moving these crudes by pipeline to areas such as Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast (PAD District 3).

Investment in rail offloading capacity at East Coast refineries, such as Philadelphia Energy Solutions's Philadelphia complex, suggests that Bakken offers a cost-competitive alternative to Brent-linked crude imports despite the cost of transporting Bakken by rail from the Midwest. The landed cost of Nigerian crude, the leading source of East Coast imports for most of the past two decades, averaged about $117/bbl in 2012, making Bakken and other domestic crudes economical alternatives. Because of the closure of several East Coast refineries and the availability of cheaper domestic light crude, East Coast imports of Nigerian crude fell from 471,000 bbl/d in 2005 to 166,000 bbl/d in 2012.

For West Coast refineries, cost-competitive access to Bakken crude would allow the Bakken oil to displace more-expensive imports there, as well. West Coast imports, which come primarily from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Iraq, have remained flat since 2006; however, Anacortes, Washington, began receiving unit-train shipments of Bakken in late 2012, potentially signaling new competition for West Coast oil imports.

As Bakken rail shipments reach the East and West coasts, pricing for Bakken crude oil is evolving. The ability to economically reach refineries on the East and West coasts expands the market for Bakken beyond the traditional Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, which have experienced a glut of midcontinent crudes in recent years. By moving east and west, Bakken escapes the infrastructure constraints that have significantly affected the price of WTI. The Gulf Coast, where Brent-linked imports have already declined significantly, offers less opportunity for Bakken. As light-sweet imports continue to be displaced along the Gulf Coast, Bakken will increasingly compete with other domestic crudes, many of which have lower pipeline transportation costs to the Gulf Coast. As long as Bakken production and transportation capacity scramble to seek equilibrium, continued variation in the differential between Bakken and WTI prices is likely.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices continue to decrease
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased four cents from the previous week to $3.65 per gallon as of April 1, 2013, down 30 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 14 cents over the last five weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Rocky Mountains, where the price is $3.50 per gallon, up three cents from last week. The largest decrease came in the Midwest, where the price dropped six cents to $3.60 per gallon. The East and Gulf Coast prices are both lower by three cents, to $3.63 per gallon and $3.48 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the West Coast price is $3.95 per gallon, a decline of two cents.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased one cent to $3.99 per gallon, 15 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has decreased 17 cents over the last five weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation except the West Coast, where the price increased two cents to $4.12 per gallon. The largest decrease came on the East Coast, where the price declined three cents to $4.03 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is $3.92 per gallon, a drop of two cents. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are both lower by a penny, to $3.97 per gallon and $3.92 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.1 million barrels to end at 39.7 million barrels last week, and are 5.0 million barrels (11.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.6 million barrels, and Midwest regional inventories declined by 0.4 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 9.1 percent of total propane inventories.

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Midwest refineries boost capacity for heavy crude oil (3/27/2013)

Released:  March 27, 2013
Next Release:  April 3, 2013

Despite recent national attention on rising domestic production of light sweet crude oil, especially from tight oil formations in North Dakota, some Midwest refiners are reconfiguring their facilities to process more heavy crude oil, which will likely come from Canada.

The refinery coking capacity in PAD District 2 (the Midwest) is set to increase significantly this year as refiners in the region focus on heavy crude oil. As this additional coking capacity comes online, Midwest refiners will be able to significantly increase runs of heavy crude, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS).

WCS currently sells at a steep discount to other crude oil benchmarks used in the United States, including West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet, and West Texas Sour, and processing WCS reduces refiner crude oil costs. When the additional coking capacity comes online, the average API gravity of crude runs in the region is likely to decrease and the product yield patterns are likely to change.

Coking is a thermal cracking process that converts heavy hydrocarbons such as atmospheric residuum, vacuum gasoil and residuals, and bitumen into lighter hydrocarbons such as unfinished gasoline and gasoils as well as petroleum coke and light gases. Coking allows refiners to increase gasoline and distillate yields from heavy crude oils (details).

Between 2002 and 2012, Midwest coking capacity increased from 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to more than 480,000 bbl/d, an increase of about 20 percent (see chart). Three major coking unit construction projects have recently been completed or are in process in PADD 2. In November 2011, Phillips 66's Wood River, Illinois, refinery (which is jointly owned by Phillips 66 and Cenovus and operated by Phillips 66) completed the addition of a 65,000-bbl/d coker. A year later, Marathon Petroleum completed a 28,000-bbl/d coker at its refinery in Detroit, Michigan. Currently, a 102,000-bbl/d coker is under construction at BP's Whiting, Indiana, refinery and is scheduled for completion later this year.

These three cokers and related refinery projects will enable processing of 509,000 bbl/d of additional heavy crude, which likely will come from Canada. The increase in heavy crude processing is based on increasing overall refinery crude processing capacity and replacing existing runs of light crude with heavier crude.

The displaced light sweet crude, like other crude in the midcontinent, will find its way east, west, and south, moving by rail and pipeline to refineries in those regions and displacing imports of waterborne crude.

The additional heavy crude is expected to lead to decreases in average API gravity in the region. From 2010 to 2012, the average API gravity of crude runs in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio fell by 2 percent, going from 33.64 to 32.98 degrees.

Trade press reports indicate that additional Midwest refiners may undertake coker installation projects in the coming years. Husky's refinery in Lima, Ohio, and NCRA's McPherson, Kansas, facility are said to be considering upgrades that would expand coking capacity, which could lead to further changes in average API gravity and refinery yields in the region.

Three New Midwest Coking Projects FacilityPre-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityPost-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityHeavy Crude Processing IncreaseStart-upPhillips 66/Cenovus, Wood River, IllinoisMarathon Petroleum, Detroit, Michigan

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both down for the 4th consecutive week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased two cents to $3.68 per gallon, down 24 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 10 cents over the last four weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.66 per gallon, up a penny from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast price is down 5 cents, and now below the $4-per-gallon mark at $3.96 per gallon. The East Coast price is $3.66 per gallon, down three cents from last week, and the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.51 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the third consecutive week, to $4.01 per gallon, 14 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has fallen 15 cents over the last four weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest drop on the West Coast, where the price fell six cents to $4.10 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is a nickel lower at $3.94 per gallon. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are $3.98 per gallon and $3.94 per gallon, respectively, both down four cents from last week. Rounding out the regions, the East Coast price dropped three cents to $4.05 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 0.9 million barrels to end at 40.8 million barrels last week, and are 2.9 million barrels (6.5 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 0.5 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 0.3 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.2 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.2 percent of total propane inventories.

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Mid-Continent Crude Oil Markets Continue to Adjust to Rapid Rise in Bakken Production (4/3/2013)

Released:  April 3, 2013
Next Release:  April 10, 2013

The differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Dakota's Bakken crudes continues to fluctuate, reflecting both production growth and changes in oil transportation capacity. Bakken crude sold at a $25-per-barrel discount to WTI in early 2012 and rose to a $5-per-barrel premium last September, before again being discounted below WTI this winter. So far this year, the gap between Bakken and WTI prices has narrowed, and once again, the Bakken price has risen above the WTI price, albeit modestly (Figure 1).

West Texas Intermediate prices are determined at Cushing, Oklahoma; Bakken prices are those at Clearbrook, Minnesota, where the North Dakota pipeline network joins Enbridge's pipeline running southeast from western Canada. Because of the costs of transporting Bakken crude to Clearbrook, including the pipeline tariff, the price for Bakken at the wellhead will be less than the delivered price at Clearbrook.

The strong growth in Bakken production has frequently outpaced expansion of the local transportation infrastructure, leading to discounts for Bakken crude compared to benchmark WTI. Production in North Dakota, the primary source of Bakken crude, rose 243,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), or 58 percent, in 2012 to 663,000 bbl/d, placing North Dakota second only to Texas in oil production among all states. Meanwhile, pipeline capacity out of the region, which is also used to accommodate increased production of Canadian crude flowing through the region, was estimated at only 395,000 bbl/d in 2012.

Limited pipeline capacity has forced shippers of Bakken crude to use alternative transportation, such as railroads. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, loading capacity at North Dakota rail terminals increased by 660,000 bbl/d between 2007 and the end of 2012, with an additional 355,000 bbl/d of capacity expected to come on line by the end of 2014.

Although transportation of crude oil by rail is generally more expensive than shipping by pipeline, rail-loading capacity has proven cheaper and quicker to build. In addition, the logistical flexibility of rail has enabled Bakken crude to reach refining areas not typically served by pipeline from the Bakken. Historically, crude oil production from the Northern Plains has been discounted against midcontinent crudes to account for the added costs of moving these crudes by pipeline to areas such as Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast (PAD District 3).

Investment in rail offloading capacity at East Coast refineries, such as Philadelphia Energy Solutions's Philadelphia complex, suggests that Bakken offers a cost-competitive alternative to Brent-linked crude imports despite the cost of transporting Bakken by rail from the Midwest. The landed cost of Nigerian crude, the leading source of East Coast imports for most of the past two decades, averaged about $117/bbl in 2012, making Bakken and other domestic crudes economical alternatives. Because of the closure of several East Coast refineries and the availability of cheaper domestic light crude, East Coast imports of Nigerian crude fell from 471,000 bbl/d in 2005 to 166,000 bbl/d in 2012.

For West Coast refineries, cost-competitive access to Bakken crude would allow the Bakken oil to displace more-expensive imports there, as well. West Coast imports, which come primarily from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Iraq, have remained flat since 2006; however, Anacortes, Washington, began receiving unit-train shipments of Bakken in late 2012, potentially signaling new competition for West Coast oil imports.

As Bakken rail shipments reach the East and West coasts, pricing for Bakken crude oil is evolving. The ability to economically reach refineries on the East and West coasts expands the market for Bakken beyond the traditional Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, which have experienced a glut of midcontinent crudes in recent years. By moving east and west, Bakken escapes the infrastructure constraints that have significantly affected the price of WTI. The Gulf Coast, where Brent-linked imports have already declined significantly, offers less opportunity for Bakken. As light-sweet imports continue to be displaced along the Gulf Coast, Bakken will increasingly compete with other domestic crudes, many of which have lower pipeline transportation costs to the Gulf Coast. As long as Bakken production and transportation capacity scramble to seek equilibrium, continued variation in the differential between Bakken and WTI prices is likely.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices continue to decrease
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased four cents from the previous week to $3.65 per gallon as of April 1, 2013, down 30 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 14 cents over the last five weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Rocky Mountains, where the price is $3.50 per gallon, up three cents from last week. The largest decrease came in the Midwest, where the price dropped six cents to $3.60 per gallon. The East and Gulf Coast prices are both lower by three cents, to $3.63 per gallon and $3.48 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the West Coast price is $3.95 per gallon, a decline of two cents.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased one cent to $3.99 per gallon, 15 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has decreased 17 cents over the last five weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation except the West Coast, where the price increased two cents to $4.12 per gallon. The largest decrease came on the East Coast, where the price declined three cents to $4.03 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is $3.92 per gallon, a drop of two cents. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are both lower by a penny, to $3.97 per gallon and $3.92 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.1 million barrels to end at 39.7 million barrels last week, and are 5.0 million barrels (11.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.6 million barrels, and Midwest regional inventories declined by 0.4 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 9.1 percent of total propane inventories.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

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OPEC Crude Oil Production Seen Declining in 2013 (3/13/2013)

Released:  March 13, 2013
Next Release:  March 20, 2013

Total crude oil production by the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 30.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in fourth-quarter 2012, down from 31.1 million bbl/d in the prior quarter. In the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects that OPEC will cut crude oil production from an average of 30.9 million bbl/d for full-year 2012 to 30.3 million bbl/d in 2013 in response to expected non-OPEC supply growth. Total OPEC petroleum liquids production will not decline as much because of growth in OPEC's condensate and natural gas liquids. When non-crude liquids are included, total projected OPEC production declines from 36.4 million bbl/d in 2012 to 36.0 million bbl/d in 2013.

With liquids production in the United States projected to rise by 835,000 bbl/d in 2013, and Saudi Arabia continuing in its traditional role as the main swing producer among the OPEC countries, it is likely that total U.S. liquids production will exceed that of Saudi Arabia this year. However, as discussed in a recent article (see EIA's This Week in Petroleum December 19, 2012), the ordering of producers depends upon accounting conventions used to make the comparison. While both U.S. and Saudi production trends are closely watched by market analysts, any future crossing of production paths is more likely to fall into the category of an interesting factoid rather than a watershed event. Regardless of how much the United States is able to reduce its reliance on imported liquid fuels, it will not be insulated from price shocks that affect the global oil market. And Saudi Arabia will likely continue in its unique role as the only holder of significant spare oil production capacity among world oil producers.

The forecast reduction in production by OPEC member countries during 2013 suggests an increase in world surplus production capacity, a widely-watched oil market indicator. EIA estimates that OPEC surplus production capacity was about 2.8 million bbl/d in February, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d over year-ago levels, but still 0.2 million bbl/d lower than the previous three-year average. Based on EIA projections, OPEC surplus capacity will average 2.9 million bbl/d in 2013 and 3.4 million bbl/d in 2014. In all cases, Saudi Arabia is the dominant holder of surplus capacity. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but that is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.

While the sanctions on Iran have been an ongoing story, the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and the outcome of the ensuing succession process could have implications for that country's oil sector. For now, EIA is maintaining its Venezuelan production forecast on the assumption that current policies related to the oil sector are continued. For more information, see "Political risks focus attention on supply of Venezuelan oil to the United States."

EIA has lowered its expectations for oil production in Libya to reflect persistence of the technical problems and political pressures that have already curtailed output. Libya's precarious security environment creates downside production risk from the potential for additional disruptions due to attacks, strikes, or poorly maintained infrastructure.

In Iraq, payment disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government are projected to lead to loss of output in the north that, at least partly, offsets increased crude oil exports from Iraq's southern fields. EIA, like many others, has frequently revised its expectations for Iraqi production growth downward because of ongoing political difficulties.

Since 2007, Angolan production increases have been followed by subsequent declines. Technical and maintenance problems have plagued some of Angola's deepwater fields for years, particularly the Greater Plutonio project, and will continue to limit Angola's crude oil production over the STEO forecast period. Nonetheless, EIA still anticipates Angolan crude oil output to gradually increase over the next two years as new deepwater production more than offsets chronic maintenance–related declines.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both fall again
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased five cents to $3.71 per gallon, down 12 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease in the Midwest, where the price decreased nine cents to $3.62 per gallon. The East Coast price dropped four cents to $3.73 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price is $3.54 per gallon, down three cents from last week. The West Coast price is down two cents to $4.05 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price is $3.47 per gallon, a penny less than last week.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents to $4.09 per gallon, four cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the East and West Coast prices dropping a nickel, to $4.12 per gallon and $4.23 per gallon, respectively. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices decreased to $4.04 per gallon and $4.01 per gallon, respectively, a decrease of four cents in each region. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price dropped three cents to $4.04 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 2.7 million barrels to end at 43.0 million barrels last week, yet are 0.8 million barrels (1.9 percent) higher than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 1.0 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, and stocks in the Rocky Mountain/West Coast region also declined by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 7.1 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil prices decrease while residential propane prices remain flat
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 11, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by nearly 2 cents to $4.04 per gallon, almost 7 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices increased by 4 cents to $3.14 per gallon, 23 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price remained unchanged, holding at $2.49 per gallon for the fourth consecutive week, almost 38 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by less than a penny to remain at $0.97 per gallon for the week ending March 11, 2013, 35 cents per gallon lower than the March 12, 2012 price.

The last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season will be published next week on Wednesday, March 20, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

OPEC Crude Oil Production Seen Declining in 2013 (3/13/2013)

Released:  March 13, 2013
Next Release:  March 20, 2013

Total crude oil production by the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 30.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in fourth-quarter 2012, down from 31.1 million bbl/d in the prior quarter. In the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects that OPEC will cut crude oil production from an average of 30.9 million bbl/d for full-year 2012 to 30.3 million bbl/d in 2013 in response to expected non-OPEC supply growth. Total OPEC petroleum liquids production will not decline as much because of growth in OPEC's condensate and natural gas liquids. When non-crude liquids are included, total projected OPEC production declines from 36.4 million bbl/d in 2012 to 36.0 million bbl/d in 2013.

With liquids production in the United States projected to rise by 835,000 bbl/d in 2013, and Saudi Arabia continuing in its traditional role as the main swing producer among the OPEC countries, it is likely that total U.S. liquids production will exceed that of Saudi Arabia this year. However, as discussed in a recent article (see EIA's This Week in Petroleum December 19, 2012), the ordering of producers depends upon accounting conventions used to make the comparison. While both U.S. and Saudi production trends are closely watched by market analysts, any future crossing of production paths is more likely to fall into the category of an interesting factoid rather than a watershed event. Regardless of how much the United States is able to reduce its reliance on imported liquid fuels, it will not be insulated from price shocks that affect the global oil market. And Saudi Arabia will likely continue in its unique role as the only holder of significant spare oil production capacity among world oil producers.

The forecast reduction in production by OPEC member countries during 2013 suggests an increase in world surplus production capacity, a widely-watched oil market indicator. EIA estimates that OPEC surplus production capacity was about 2.8 million bbl/d in February, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d over year-ago levels, but still 0.2 million bbl/d lower than the previous three-year average. Based on EIA projections, OPEC surplus capacity will average 2.9 million bbl/d in 2013 and 3.4 million bbl/d in 2014. In all cases, Saudi Arabia is the dominant holder of surplus capacity. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but that is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.

While the sanctions on Iran have been an ongoing story, the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and the outcome of the ensuing succession process could have implications for that country's oil sector. For now, EIA is maintaining its Venezuelan production forecast on the assumption that current policies related to the oil sector are continued. For more information, see "Political risks focus attention on supply of Venezuelan oil to the United States."

EIA has lowered its expectations for oil production in Libya to reflect persistence of the technical problems and political pressures that have already curtailed output. Libya's precarious security environment creates downside production risk from the potential for additional disruptions due to attacks, strikes, or poorly maintained infrastructure.

In Iraq, payment disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government are projected to lead to loss of output in the north that, at least partly, offsets increased crude oil exports from Iraq's southern fields. EIA, like many others, has frequently revised its expectations for Iraqi production growth downward because of ongoing political difficulties.

Since 2007, Angolan production increases have been followed by subsequent declines. Technical and maintenance problems have plagued some of Angola's deepwater fields for years, particularly the Greater Plutonio project, and will continue to limit Angola's crude oil production over the STEO forecast period. Nonetheless, EIA still anticipates Angolan crude oil output to gradually increase over the next two years as new deepwater production more than offsets chronic maintenance–related declines.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both fall again
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased five cents to $3.71 per gallon, down 12 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease in the Midwest, where the price decreased nine cents to $3.62 per gallon. The East Coast price dropped four cents to $3.73 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price is $3.54 per gallon, down three cents from last week. The West Coast price is down two cents to $4.05 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price is $3.47 per gallon, a penny less than last week.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents to $4.09 per gallon, four cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the East and West Coast prices dropping a nickel, to $4.12 per gallon and $4.23 per gallon, respectively. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices decreased to $4.04 per gallon and $4.01 per gallon, respectively, a decrease of four cents in each region. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price dropped three cents to $4.04 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 2.7 million barrels to end at 43.0 million barrels last week, yet are 0.8 million barrels (1.9 percent) higher than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 1.0 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, and stocks in the Rocky Mountain/West Coast region also declined by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 7.1 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil prices decrease while residential propane prices remain flat
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 11, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by nearly 2 cents to $4.04 per gallon, almost 7 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices increased by 4 cents to $3.14 per gallon, 23 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price remained unchanged, holding at $2.49 per gallon for the fourth consecutive week, almost 38 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by less than a penny to remain at $0.97 per gallon for the week ending March 11, 2013, 35 cents per gallon lower than the March 12, 2012 price.

The last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season will be published next week on Wednesday, March 20, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Total U.S. crude oil imports continue to decline in 2012 but regional differences persist (3/20/2013)

Released:  March 20, 2013
Next Release:  March 27, 2013

At 8.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997, as growing domestic crude oil production drove a 444,000 bbl/d (5.0 percent) decline from the 2011 import level. With refinery runs remaining relatively high, U.S. refiners are running an increasing amount of domestically produced crude oil. However, the crude oil import reduction trend is not geographically uniform. Most of the decline in imported crude oil occurred in the Gulf Coast and East Coast regions, while Midwest imports rose (Figure 1).

Since peaking in 2005 at 10.1 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil imports fell in six of the subsequent seven years, amounting to a total decline of more than 1.6 million bbl/d (16.1 percent). Over the same period, net crude runs at U.S. refineries fell only 200,000 bbl/d (1.4 percent). As a result, imports represented 57 percent of crude oil run in U.S. refineries in 2012, down from 67 percent in 2005.

Reductions in the use of imported crude oil were most apparent along the Gulf Coast, home to about half of the nation's refining capacity. Imported crude runs in this region were 4.5 million bbl/d in 2012, representing 58 percent of total crude runs, down from 80 percent in 2005. EIA's weekly data indicate that that trend is continuing and accelerating in 2013. Average Gulf Coast crude oil imports for the four weeks ending March 1 dropped below 3.4 million bbl/d, the lowest four-week average since 1992.

From 2005 to 2012, East Coast refinery runs of imported crude decreased 735,000 bbl/d (46 percent). That decrease was almost matched by a 685,000 bbl/d decrease in overall East Coast crude runs. Recently, the large price differentials between landlocked crudes with growing production, such as Bakken, and global seaborne crudes that are linked to the price of Brent have encouraged refiners to bring more domestically produced crude into the region via rail. In 2012, 92 percent of crude oil run in East Coast refineries was imported, down from 99 percent in 2005.

Opposite this trend, the Midwest has been importing significantly more crude oil since 2005. In 2012, runs of imported crude oil reached 1.7 million bbl/d, an increase of 205,000 bbl/d (14 percent). In 2005, almost 34 percent of imported crude oil run in the Midwest was shipped to the Midwest via another region, most commonly by pipeline from the Gulf Coast; however, by 2012, nearly all imported crude processed in the Midwest was imported directly from Canada. While total U.S. crude imports have been decreasing, imports from Canada have gone up 775,000 bbl/d since 2005. The United States imported 2.4 million bbl/d of Canadian crude oil in 2012, or about 28 percent of total U.S. crude imports.

In addition to crude from Canada, crude imports from Colombia, Kuwait, and Brazil also increased; however, imports from other major suppliers declined since 2005 (Figure 2). U.S. imports from Nigeria have fallen 671,000 bbl/d (62 percent) since reaching almost 1.1 million bbl/d in 2005. This decline in imports of Nigerian crude has been split fairly evenly between the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Much of the growth in domestic production has been light low-sulfur crude oil, a suitable and more economic substitute for the Brent-price-linked Nigerian grades, which have lost competitiveness in U.S. import markets. The United States has also reduced imports of heavy high-sulfur crude from Mexico and Venezuela and light low-sulfur crude from Angola and the United Kingdom.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both decrease for a 3rd week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased one cent to $3.70 per gallon, down 17 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.65 per gallon, up three cents from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast and East Coast prices both dropped four cents, to $4.01 per gallon and $3.69 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.52 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the second consecutive week, to $4.05 per gallon, 10 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease on the West Coast, where the price decreased seven cents to $4.16 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices are now both under the $4 per gallon mark, falling five and four cents from last week, respectively, to $3.99 per gallon and $3.97 per gallon. The East Coast price declined four cents to $4.08 per gallon, and the Midwest price is $4.02 per gallon, dropping three cents from last week.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.2 million barrels to end at 41.8 million barrels last week, and are 1.0 million barrels (2.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels, while East Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories changed only slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.0 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil and propane prices decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 18, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by 3 cents to $4.01 per gallon, 10 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased by 4 cents to almost $3.10 per gallon, 29 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price decreased by nearly a penny, to $2.48 per gallon, almost 39 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices increased by nearly 4 cents to $1.01 per gallon for the week ending March 18, 2013, 23 cents per gallon lower than the March 19, 2012 price.

This is the last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season. Data collection will resume on October 7, 2013 for publication on Wednesday, October 9, 2013.

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Midwest refineries boost capacity for heavy crude oil (3/27/2013)

Released:  March 27, 2013
Next Release:  April 3, 2013

Despite recent national attention on rising domestic production of light sweet crude oil, especially from tight oil formations in North Dakota, some Midwest refiners are reconfiguring their facilities to process more heavy crude oil, which will likely come from Canada.

The refinery coking capacity in PAD District 2 (the Midwest) is set to increase significantly this year as refiners in the region focus on heavy crude oil. As this additional coking capacity comes online, Midwest refiners will be able to significantly increase runs of heavy crude, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS).

WCS currently sells at a steep discount to other crude oil benchmarks used in the United States, including West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet, and West Texas Sour, and processing WCS reduces refiner crude oil costs. When the additional coking capacity comes online, the average API gravity of crude runs in the region is likely to decrease and the product yield patterns are likely to change.

Coking is a thermal cracking process that converts heavy hydrocarbons such as atmospheric residuum, vacuum gasoil and residuals, and bitumen into lighter hydrocarbons such as unfinished gasoline and gasoils as well as petroleum coke and light gases. Coking allows refiners to increase gasoline and distillate yields from heavy crude oils (details).

Between 2002 and 2012, Midwest coking capacity increased from 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to more than 480,000 bbl/d, an increase of about 20 percent (see chart). Three major coking unit construction projects have recently been completed or are in process in PADD 2. In November 2011, Phillips 66's Wood River, Illinois, refinery (which is jointly owned by Phillips 66 and Cenovus and operated by Phillips 66) completed the addition of a 65,000-bbl/d coker. A year later, Marathon Petroleum completed a 28,000-bbl/d coker at its refinery in Detroit, Michigan. Currently, a 102,000-bbl/d coker is under construction at BP's Whiting, Indiana, refinery and is scheduled for completion later this year.

These three cokers and related refinery projects will enable processing of 509,000 bbl/d of additional heavy crude, which likely will come from Canada. The increase in heavy crude processing is based on increasing overall refinery crude processing capacity and replacing existing runs of light crude with heavier crude.

The displaced light sweet crude, like other crude in the midcontinent, will find its way east, west, and south, moving by rail and pipeline to refineries in those regions and displacing imports of waterborne crude.

The additional heavy crude is expected to lead to decreases in average API gravity in the region. From 2010 to 2012, the average API gravity of crude runs in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio fell by 2 percent, going from 33.64 to 32.98 degrees.

Trade press reports indicate that additional Midwest refiners may undertake coker installation projects in the coming years. Husky's refinery in Lima, Ohio, and NCRA's McPherson, Kansas, facility are said to be considering upgrades that would expand coking capacity, which could lead to further changes in average API gravity and refinery yields in the region.

Three New Midwest Coking Projects FacilityPre-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityPost-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityHeavy Crude Processing IncreaseStart-upPhillips 66/Cenovus, Wood River, IllinoisMarathon Petroleum, Detroit, Michigan

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both down for the 4th consecutive week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased two cents to $3.68 per gallon, down 24 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 10 cents over the last four weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.66 per gallon, up a penny from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast price is down 5 cents, and now below the $4-per-gallon mark at $3.96 per gallon. The East Coast price is $3.66 per gallon, down three cents from last week, and the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.51 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the third consecutive week, to $4.01 per gallon, 14 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has fallen 15 cents over the last four weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest drop on the West Coast, where the price fell six cents to $4.10 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is a nickel lower at $3.94 per gallon. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are $3.98 per gallon and $3.94 per gallon, respectively, both down four cents from last week. Rounding out the regions, the East Coast price dropped three cents to $4.05 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 0.9 million barrels to end at 40.8 million barrels last week, and are 2.9 million barrels (6.5 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 0.5 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 0.3 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.2 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.2 percent of total propane inventories.

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Mid-Continent Crude Oil Markets Continue to Adjust to Rapid Rise in Bakken Production (4/3/2013)

Released:  April 3, 2013
Next Release:  April 10, 2013

The differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Dakota's Bakken crudes continues to fluctuate, reflecting both production growth and changes in oil transportation capacity. Bakken crude sold at a $25-per-barrel discount to WTI in early 2012 and rose to a $5-per-barrel premium last September, before again being discounted below WTI this winter. So far this year, the gap between Bakken and WTI prices has narrowed, and once again, the Bakken price has risen above the WTI price, albeit modestly (Figure 1).

West Texas Intermediate prices are determined at Cushing, Oklahoma; Bakken prices are those at Clearbrook, Minnesota, where the North Dakota pipeline network joins Enbridge's pipeline running southeast from western Canada. Because of the costs of transporting Bakken crude to Clearbrook, including the pipeline tariff, the price for Bakken at the wellhead will be less than the delivered price at Clearbrook.

The strong growth in Bakken production has frequently outpaced expansion of the local transportation infrastructure, leading to discounts for Bakken crude compared to benchmark WTI. Production in North Dakota, the primary source of Bakken crude, rose 243,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), or 58 percent, in 2012 to 663,000 bbl/d, placing North Dakota second only to Texas in oil production among all states. Meanwhile, pipeline capacity out of the region, which is also used to accommodate increased production of Canadian crude flowing through the region, was estimated at only 395,000 bbl/d in 2012.

Limited pipeline capacity has forced shippers of Bakken crude to use alternative transportation, such as railroads. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, loading capacity at North Dakota rail terminals increased by 660,000 bbl/d between 2007 and the end of 2012, with an additional 355,000 bbl/d of capacity expected to come on line by the end of 2014.

Although transportation of crude oil by rail is generally more expensive than shipping by pipeline, rail-loading capacity has proven cheaper and quicker to build. In addition, the logistical flexibility of rail has enabled Bakken crude to reach refining areas not typically served by pipeline from the Bakken. Historically, crude oil production from the Northern Plains has been discounted against midcontinent crudes to account for the added costs of moving these crudes by pipeline to areas such as Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast (PAD District 3).

Investment in rail offloading capacity at East Coast refineries, such as Philadelphia Energy Solutions's Philadelphia complex, suggests that Bakken offers a cost-competitive alternative to Brent-linked crude imports despite the cost of transporting Bakken by rail from the Midwest. The landed cost of Nigerian crude, the leading source of East Coast imports for most of the past two decades, averaged about $117/bbl in 2012, making Bakken and other domestic crudes economical alternatives. Because of the closure of several East Coast refineries and the availability of cheaper domestic light crude, East Coast imports of Nigerian crude fell from 471,000 bbl/d in 2005 to 166,000 bbl/d in 2012.

For West Coast refineries, cost-competitive access to Bakken crude would allow the Bakken oil to displace more-expensive imports there, as well. West Coast imports, which come primarily from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Iraq, have remained flat since 2006; however, Anacortes, Washington, began receiving unit-train shipments of Bakken in late 2012, potentially signaling new competition for West Coast oil imports.

As Bakken rail shipments reach the East and West coasts, pricing for Bakken crude oil is evolving. The ability to economically reach refineries on the East and West coasts expands the market for Bakken beyond the traditional Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, which have experienced a glut of midcontinent crudes in recent years. By moving east and west, Bakken escapes the infrastructure constraints that have significantly affected the price of WTI. The Gulf Coast, where Brent-linked imports have already declined significantly, offers less opportunity for Bakken. As light-sweet imports continue to be displaced along the Gulf Coast, Bakken will increasingly compete with other domestic crudes, many of which have lower pipeline transportation costs to the Gulf Coast. As long as Bakken production and transportation capacity scramble to seek equilibrium, continued variation in the differential between Bakken and WTI prices is likely.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices continue to decrease
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased four cents from the previous week to $3.65 per gallon as of April 1, 2013, down 30 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 14 cents over the last five weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Rocky Mountains, where the price is $3.50 per gallon, up three cents from last week. The largest decrease came in the Midwest, where the price dropped six cents to $3.60 per gallon. The East and Gulf Coast prices are both lower by three cents, to $3.63 per gallon and $3.48 per gallon, respectively. Rounding out the regions, the West Coast price is $3.95 per gallon, a decline of two cents.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased one cent to $3.99 per gallon, 15 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has decreased 17 cents over the last five weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation except the West Coast, where the price increased two cents to $4.12 per gallon. The largest decrease came on the East Coast, where the price declined three cents to $4.03 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is $3.92 per gallon, a drop of two cents. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are both lower by a penny, to $3.97 per gallon and $3.92 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 1.1 million barrels to end at 39.7 million barrels last week, and are 5.0 million barrels (11.3 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.6 million barrels, and Midwest regional inventories declined by 0.4 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 9.1 percent of total propane inventories.

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OPEC Crude Oil Production Seen Declining in 2013 (3/13/2013)

Released:  March 13, 2013
Next Release:  March 20, 2013

Total crude oil production by the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 30.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in fourth-quarter 2012, down from 31.1 million bbl/d in the prior quarter. In the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects that OPEC will cut crude oil production from an average of 30.9 million bbl/d for full-year 2012 to 30.3 million bbl/d in 2013 in response to expected non-OPEC supply growth. Total OPEC petroleum liquids production will not decline as much because of growth in OPEC's condensate and natural gas liquids. When non-crude liquids are included, total projected OPEC production declines from 36.4 million bbl/d in 2012 to 36.0 million bbl/d in 2013.

With liquids production in the United States projected to rise by 835,000 bbl/d in 2013, and Saudi Arabia continuing in its traditional role as the main swing producer among the OPEC countries, it is likely that total U.S. liquids production will exceed that of Saudi Arabia this year. However, as discussed in a recent article (see EIA's This Week in Petroleum December 19, 2012), the ordering of producers depends upon accounting conventions used to make the comparison. While both U.S. and Saudi production trends are closely watched by market analysts, any future crossing of production paths is more likely to fall into the category of an interesting factoid rather than a watershed event. Regardless of how much the United States is able to reduce its reliance on imported liquid fuels, it will not be insulated from price shocks that affect the global oil market. And Saudi Arabia will likely continue in its unique role as the only holder of significant spare oil production capacity among world oil producers.

The forecast reduction in production by OPEC member countries during 2013 suggests an increase in world surplus production capacity, a widely-watched oil market indicator. EIA estimates that OPEC surplus production capacity was about 2.8 million bbl/d in February, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d over year-ago levels, but still 0.2 million bbl/d lower than the previous three-year average. Based on EIA projections, OPEC surplus capacity will average 2.9 million bbl/d in 2013 and 3.4 million bbl/d in 2014. In all cases, Saudi Arabia is the dominant holder of surplus capacity. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but that is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.

While the sanctions on Iran have been an ongoing story, the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and the outcome of the ensuing succession process could have implications for that country's oil sector. For now, EIA is maintaining its Venezuelan production forecast on the assumption that current policies related to the oil sector are continued. For more information, see "Political risks focus attention on supply of Venezuelan oil to the United States."

EIA has lowered its expectations for oil production in Libya to reflect persistence of the technical problems and political pressures that have already curtailed output. Libya's precarious security environment creates downside production risk from the potential for additional disruptions due to attacks, strikes, or poorly maintained infrastructure.

In Iraq, payment disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government are projected to lead to loss of output in the north that, at least partly, offsets increased crude oil exports from Iraq's southern fields. EIA, like many others, has frequently revised its expectations for Iraqi production growth downward because of ongoing political difficulties.

Since 2007, Angolan production increases have been followed by subsequent declines. Technical and maintenance problems have plagued some of Angola's deepwater fields for years, particularly the Greater Plutonio project, and will continue to limit Angola's crude oil production over the STEO forecast period. Nonetheless, EIA still anticipates Angolan crude oil output to gradually increase over the next two years as new deepwater production more than offsets chronic maintenance–related declines.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both fall again
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased five cents to $3.71 per gallon, down 12 cents from last year at this time. Prices declined in all regions of the nation, with the largest decrease in the Midwest, where the price decreased nine cents to $3.62 per gallon. The East Coast price dropped four cents to $3.73 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price is $3.54 per gallon, down three cents from last week. The West Coast price is down two cents to $4.05 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price is $3.47 per gallon, a penny less than last week.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents to $4.09 per gallon, four cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the East and West Coast prices dropping a nickel, to $4.12 per gallon and $4.23 per gallon, respectively. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices decreased to $4.04 per gallon and $4.01 per gallon, respectively, a decrease of four cents in each region. Rounding out the regions, the Gulf Coast price dropped three cents to $4.04 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 2.7 million barrels to end at 43.0 million barrels last week, yet are 0.8 million barrels (1.9 percent) higher than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 1.0 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.1 million barrels, and stocks in the Rocky Mountain/West Coast region also declined by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 7.1 percent of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil prices decrease while residential propane prices remain flat
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending March 11, 2013. The average residential heating oil price fell by nearly 2 cents to $4.04 per gallon, almost 7 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices increased by 4 cents to $3.14 per gallon, 23 cents per gallon less than last year at this time.

The average residential propane price remained unchanged, holding at $2.49 per gallon for the fourth consecutive week, almost 38 cents per gallon lower than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by less than a penny to remain at $0.97 per gallon for the week ending March 11, 2013, 35 cents per gallon lower than the March 12, 2012 price.

The last data collection for the 2012-2013 SHOPP season will be published next week on Wednesday, March 20, 2013.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here

Midwest refineries boost capacity for heavy crude oil (3/27/2013)

Released:  March 27, 2013
Next Release:  April 3, 2013

Despite recent national attention on rising domestic production of light sweet crude oil, especially from tight oil formations in North Dakota, some Midwest refiners are reconfiguring their facilities to process more heavy crude oil, which will likely come from Canada.

The refinery coking capacity in PAD District 2 (the Midwest) is set to increase significantly this year as refiners in the region focus on heavy crude oil. As this additional coking capacity comes online, Midwest refiners will be able to significantly increase runs of heavy crude, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS).

WCS currently sells at a steep discount to other crude oil benchmarks used in the United States, including West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet, and West Texas Sour, and processing WCS reduces refiner crude oil costs. When the additional coking capacity comes online, the average API gravity of crude runs in the region is likely to decrease and the product yield patterns are likely to change.

Coking is a thermal cracking process that converts heavy hydrocarbons such as atmospheric residuum, vacuum gasoil and residuals, and bitumen into lighter hydrocarbons such as unfinished gasoline and gasoils as well as petroleum coke and light gases. Coking allows refiners to increase gasoline and distillate yields from heavy crude oils (details).

Between 2002 and 2012, Midwest coking capacity increased from 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to more than 480,000 bbl/d, an increase of about 20 percent (see chart). Three major coking unit construction projects have recently been completed or are in process in PADD 2. In November 2011, Phillips 66's Wood River, Illinois, refinery (which is jointly owned by Phillips 66 and Cenovus and operated by Phillips 66) completed the addition of a 65,000-bbl/d coker. A year later, Marathon Petroleum completed a 28,000-bbl/d coker at its refinery in Detroit, Michigan. Currently, a 102,000-bbl/d coker is under construction at BP's Whiting, Indiana, refinery and is scheduled for completion later this year.

These three cokers and related refinery projects will enable processing of 509,000 bbl/d of additional heavy crude, which likely will come from Canada. The increase in heavy crude processing is based on increasing overall refinery crude processing capacity and replacing existing runs of light crude with heavier crude.

The displaced light sweet crude, like other crude in the midcontinent, will find its way east, west, and south, moving by rail and pipeline to refineries in those regions and displacing imports of waterborne crude.

The additional heavy crude is expected to lead to decreases in average API gravity in the region. From 2010 to 2012, the average API gravity of crude runs in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio fell by 2 percent, going from 33.64 to 32.98 degrees.

Trade press reports indicate that additional Midwest refiners may undertake coker installation projects in the coming years. Husky's refinery in Lima, Ohio, and NCRA's McPherson, Kansas, facility are said to be considering upgrades that would expand coking capacity, which could lead to further changes in average API gravity and refinery yields in the region.

Three New Midwest Coking Projects FacilityPre-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityPost-Coker Heavy Crude CapacityHeavy Crude Processing IncreaseStart-upPhillips 66/Cenovus, Wood River, IllinoisMarathon Petroleum, Detroit, Michigan

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both down for the 4th consecutive week
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline decreased two cents to $3.68 per gallon, down 24 cents from last year at this time. The U.S. average price has declined 10 cents over the last four weeks. Prices were lower in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price is $3.66 per gallon, up a penny from last week, and the Rocky Mountain region, where the price is unchanged at $3.47 per gallon. The West Coast price is down 5 cents, and now below the $4-per-gallon mark at $3.96 per gallon. The East Coast price is $3.66 per gallon, down three cents from last week, and the Gulf Coast price declined two cents to $3.51 per gallon.

The national average diesel fuel price decreased four cents for the third consecutive week, to $4.01 per gallon, 14 cents lower than last year at this time. The U.S. average price has fallen 15 cents over the last four weeks. Prices decreased in all regions of the nation, with the largest drop on the West Coast, where the price fell six cents to $4.10 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price is a nickel lower at $3.94 per gallon. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices are $3.98 per gallon and $3.94 per gallon, respectively, both down four cents from last week. Rounding out the regions, the East Coast price dropped three cents to $4.05 per gallon.

Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks fell 0.9 million barrels to end at 40.8 million barrels last week, and are 2.9 million barrels (6.5 percent) lower than the same period a year ago. Midwest inventories dropped by 0.5 million barrels, and Gulf Coast regional inventories declined by 0.3 million barrels. East Coast stocks dropped by 0.2 million barrels, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased slightly. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.2 percent of total propane inventories.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.

View the original article here